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NBA Playoffs: Public v. Professional Plays
The NBA (national basketball association) playoffs, which starts around mid April and ends around mid June, is a time when a lot of action is handled by the sportsbooks. The NBA playoffs can be likened to the college football bowl season—it is a series of games where there is high public interest, and hence line inflation. This article will show the difference between public and professional plays, in the hopes of making profit for the average sports bettor.
Public plays are those that seem to be the easiest ones to make—they are often the ‘common sense’ bets, but yet these bets also often lose, for is such bets continuously won, there would be no sportsbooks. During the playoffs, public plays are easy to spot. They are plays where the obvious side is blatant; for example, if a team is down 0-2 and is then favored at home, the public play would be to back the visiting team getting points. The average Joe would see visiting team A at 2-0 in the series receiving points (a virtual ‘gift’ from the sportsbook). Such a person would then play team A, thinking he is getting value on team A. But, what the person is ignoring is the fact that home team B is virtually fighting for its playoff life. If such a home team were to lose game 3 at home, the series is one step from being concluded. As such the home team will put maximum effort, and most of the time also cover the spread. If such a home team is favored, the result is usually a blowout.
Professional plays are usually those that oppose the public plays. There are underlying factors to consider when a play becomes ‘professional’. Handicappers use historical and current statistics to predict plays; as such, plays may not come out on a daily basis. Professional plays are usually also made by professional bettors, where each play is relatively large in stature (ranging anywhere from $1000 to $100,000).
In conclusion, one should be wary of public plays for they do not win in the long run. It is those plays that are most obvious and most often also lose. Professional plays are the contrary and usually involve angles and trends.
